Key states too close to predict

WASHINGTON — President Bush has widened his advantage with likely voters in Florida, taken the lead in Pennsylvania and maintains a small margin over John Kerry in Ohio, according to a USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll of three key states.

There also is good news for Kerry, however. The senator from Massachusetts has reduced Bush's lead in Ohio in the past three weeks and trails within the poll's margin of error, plus or minus percentage points, in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Among registered voters, rather than only those deemed likely to vote, Kerry leads Bush in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

"This shows while this race has yet to be won by either candidate, the momentum has shifted very dramatically in John Kerry's direction," Kerry campaign pollster Mark Mellman said.

The Bush campaign did not respond to comment requests.

Independent analysts say that although the polls show a Bush advantage, however slight, the three states remains too close to call.

"Anybody who thinks this race is over is kind of leaping before they're looking," says Stuart Rothenberg, editor of an independent political newsletter. "We've seen a variety of polls that show a variety of leads and margins, and I just think there are more to come."

The nation is divided between staunchly Democratic and Republican states, and the campaign has focused largely on about a dozen states that were decided narrowly in 2000 and are essential to reaching the 270 Electoral College votes needed to be elected president.

USA Today/CNN/Gallup Polls in the past month, since the parties' national conventions, show Bush leading with likely voters in eight of 11 battleground states, including four won by Vice President Gore four years ago. Likely voters are identified by their answers to seven poll questions on how much thought they are giving to the election, whether they plan to vote in November and how often they say they have voted in the past.

Bush's lead in four of those eight states is within the margin of error. But analysts say Kerry is now having to defend states Democrats won in 2000 rather than try to steal away states Bush won.

Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania have a total of 68 electoral votes. Experts say Kerry must win two of the three to win the presidency. Bush won Florida — after a Supreme Court review — and Ohio in 2000. Gore won Pennsylvania.

State-by-state details:

— In Florida, Bush leads Kerry 52 percent-43 percent among likely voters in a poll taken Sept. 24-27.Bush leads 49 percent-44 percent among registered voters.