Let the debates begin

GEORGE W. BUSH

Despite his lead in opinion polls, it would be risky for President Bush to "sit on his hands" during tonight's debate in Florida, says University of Missouri communications professor William Benoit, who has written five books about presidential campaigns. Bush needs to show voters who have doubts about the direction the country is heading that things are getting better.

"Bush has got to be more detailed" about Iraq, adds professor Wayne Fields, director of American culture studies at Washington University in St. Louis. "Where are we going to get the troops to go there and what's the cost?"

Bush is likely to try to reinforce his argument that Kerry is a vacillator whose positions change with the political winds, a politician unfit to lead the nation in dangerous times.

On the campaign trail, he often makes his point about a flip-flopping Kerry with a wry smile, but he must not come across as mean-spirited Thursday night. Up till now, his public personality is seen as an advantage.

"Bush has a warmth that plays out over an audience, and there is no warmth in what the intellectual from New England gives," says Henry Graff, Columbia University professor emeritus and presidential historian.

Kerry may try to knock Bush offstride, but the president is famous for staying on message, keeping to his political point no matter what. The rules of the debate prohibit the candidates from questioning each other, but Kerry could toss out rhetorical questions and hope a moderator steers them to Bush.

Even so, Schroeder says, "Bush may not take the bait."

JOHN F. KERRY

John Kerry, the Democratic senator from Massachusetts, criticizes Bush's Iraq policies in every speech, and he will try to drive home his argument during tonight's first presidential debate that the war is going badly and Bush doesn't understand or know what to do about it.

At the same time, he must persuade the millions of voters watching on TV that he has a better plan to bring the war to an end and bring America's troops home. He must seem strong and resolute — after months of Bush ads insisting he's not.

Kerry needs to make people envision him as president, says Alan Schroeder, a presidential debate expert at Northeastern University in Boston. "He has to seem to that viewing audience that he's ready to move into the White House tomorrow and take care of the country. . . . Easier said than done."

"He has to diminish George W. Bush without being personally mean about it," Schroeder says, even as he tries to "dispel the negative stereotypes that have been created about him."

And he needs to know when to be still, suggested Richard O'Dor, lecturer in public policy studies and coach of Duke University's debating club.

Kerry needs to hold back enough to give Bush the opportunity and time to create errors, O'Dor says. "I would suggest that he needs to keep his answers simple, he needs to shorten his sentences, he needs to eliminate any explanations of explanations."