Tonight's focus is on foreign policy

WASHINGTON — "Safe" is a word you may hear most often in the first presidential debate tonight at the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Fla.

Foreign policy and national security are this debate's focus, and safety — expressed sometimes with words like "strong" and "secure" — has been the dominant rhetorical theme in arguments between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry, his Democratic challenger. Amid terrorist threats, a president's ability to protect citizens at home has become a bottom-line issue for many Americans.

At the same time, Kerry has to convince voters they should throw President Bush out of office for his actions, all the while looking and acting like a solid commander in chief himself. Bush, in office and in the lead in recent polls, needs a no-mistakes performance that won't rock the election boat.

So as you watch the 90-minute debate, expect these themes to appear in several ways:

• The appeal to women. Pollsters think three-fifths of undecided voters are women and that many are looking for reassurance that the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, won't happen again. Both Bush and Kerry have used different language to appeal to men and women. For men, the debate is often framed in words like "strength." Women, however, are more likely to respond to language involving "safeguarding" their homes or "protecting" the nation from new attacks.

• The war in Iraq. Kerry will argue that it has been a dangerous diversion in the overall goal of smashing al-Qaida and bringing Osama bin Laden and other architects of 9/11 to justice. He argues that the war has made Americans less safe. Bush will argue that although the going has been tough, Saddam Hussein was a clear and present danger and the world is a safer place with him gone. Bush will also point out that Kerry agreed with him about Saddam's threat before the war in Iraq.

• Style. Expect Bush to attack Kerry as an opportunistic flip-flopper, a politician who has taken so many positions on Iraq that he can't be trusted to stand fast against terrorism's new threats. Bush said in Ohio this week that Kerry "probably could spend 90 minutes debating himself. You cannot lead when people don't know where you stand."

Expect Bush to mention Kerry's now infamous statement that he actually voted for an $87 billion appropriation for the war in Iraq before he voted against it. If Kerry's answer is defensive and is delivered in officious Senate-speak, it could be a rough moment for the challenger.

Expect Kerry to attack Bush's perceived style strengths — that he is unyielding when he sets a course — as a dangerous trait in an age when America needs allies and dexterity in its diplomacy. Kerry will argue Bush misled America into Iraq and alienated allies in doing it.

"George Bush refuses to confront reality and admit that he recklessly rushed to war, that his wrong choices have left Iraq in chaos and that he has no plan to win the peace," Kerry said in Spring Green, Wis., where he prepared for the debate.

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Contributing: Associated Press