Blair may be pulling for Bush to win

LONDON — In normal times, one would expect British Prime Minister Tony Blair to be pulling for John Kerry to win the U.S. presidency in November.

The American Democrats and Britain's Labor Party, which Blair leads, are ideological cousins — slightly left-of-center parties that support the investment of tax money in public services such as education and health care. Blair and former President Bill Clinton got on famously.

But these are not normal times. As the instability in Iraq drags on, British politics has been stood on its head. Trans-Atlantic political alliances are out of kilter.

All of this led William Hague, a former leader of the Conservative Party — the ideological cousin of the Republicans — to opine in a recent newspaper column that Blair needs President Bush to win re-election. And Robin Cook, Blair's former foreign secretary, has expressed a similar view.

"If Bush is defeated, Blair will be all on his own when it comes to defending how the war in Iraq has been handled," Hague wrote.

Blair is probably "getting on his knees and praying this very right-wing president is re-elected," Hague said.

Further evidence that the Bush-Blair alliance and the war in Iraq have disrupted the normal rhythms of politics was offered earlier this month by British newspapers. They reported that a senior White House aide, who was not named, said Bush would refuse to meet with Conservative leader Michael Howard, Bush's supposed ideological soul mate, because Howard had called on Blair to resign over the way he took Britain to war.

Blair, of course, is not saying who he favors in the U.S. presidential race. Few national leaders would be so gauche as to venture their opinion on another country's election.

But speculation as to his feelings is rife in Britain.

"I think Hague's right," said Michael Cox, an editor of the journal International Relations. "I think he's saying what everybody else is thinking."

Cox said he has no doubt that the Iraq issue will hurt Blair in national elections expected to be called next year. It will hurt particularly among Labor Party activists, who opposed the war and who may not be motivated to get out the Labor vote.

Virtually all experts agree that Blair is on course for a third term. Britons do not vote for their national leader, only for local members of parliament. The leader of the party with a parliamentary majority becomes prime minister.