WASHINGTON — While a new intelligence estimate offers a gloomy assessment of Iraq's future, President Bush talks instead about brighter days ahead under a new prime minister and the promise of free elections. "Freedom is on the march," he told a campaign rally Thursday.

Iraq is a daily theme of Bush's campaign speeches, often a springboard for attacking Democratic rival John Kerry. But Bush does not speak about the more than 1,000 U.S. deaths, the highly publicized kidnappings, executions and beheadings, or the dark scenarios outlined in the highly classified National Intelligence Estimate that was presented to him in late July.

The new report offers a sobering picture of Iraq's future in terms of political, economic and security conditions.

In a worst-case scenario, it envisions developments pointing to a civil war among Iraq's three major populations, the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds.

At best, the experts said, Iraq will have a tenuous stability. A middle-ground estimate envisions increased extremism and fragmentation that impede efforts to build a central government and adversely affect efforts to democratize the country.

Several administration officials confirmed the existence of the intelligence report, which triggered criticism of Bush from the Kerry campaign.

Bush has been consistently giving "a very rosy scenario as to how well Iraq was going," Sen. Bob Graham, D-Fla., said in a telephone conference call arranged by Kerry's staff. "This report throws a large bucket of cold water over those roses."

Graham, the former chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, urged the White House to release the report so voters can decide if they want to continue with a president who has "gotten us into the quagmire of Iraq with no, either, plan for entry or exit." The White House said the report would not be released.

Kerry, in a speech to National Guard veterans, said Bush who was trying to persuade voters with "a fantasy world of spin" rather than telling the truth on Iraq.

"Two days ago, the president stood right here where I'm standing and didn't acknowledge that more than 1,000 men and women have lost their lives in Iraq. He didn't tell you that with each passing day, we're seeing more chaos, more violence, indiscriminate killings," Kerry said.

White House communications director Dan Bartlett accused Democrats of unfounded pessimism. "President Bush gets his briefings from commanders on the ground. He has reason for his optimism because of the enormous amount of progress we have made," Bartlett said.