WASHINGTON For Democrats who believe Ralph Nader was a spoiler four years ago, 2004 might seem like just a bad dream instead of a nightmare.
Despite Nader's much-publicized failure to get his name on the November ballot in major states like California, Illinois and Texas, the independent presidential candidate is still on track to make the ballot where he could hurt Democrats most in key battleground states.
A full picture of exactly which states will list Nader might not emerge for another month as petitions are examined, signatures certified and Democrats pursue legal challenges to weaken the candidate they believe draws precious votes away from John Kerry, their nominee.
So far, Nader has met requirements to appear on the ballot in nine of 18 states actively contested by President Bush and Kerry this year.
Those states Arkansas, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, Washington and West Virginia, along with Florida and Colorado through his Reform Party nomination have seen the Bush and Kerry campaigns spend millions buying ads and organizing grass-roots supporters to get out the vote in a race that could be as close as the 2000 election.
A Michigan appeals court on Friday ruled that Nader could appear on the ballot there as an independent, although more than 45,000 of the 50,500 signatures submitted were collected for him by the Michigan Republican Party. Earlier this week, a federal judge refused to order Nader onto the ballot as the Reform Party candidate because two factions in the state claimed to be the official Reform Party and only one had endorsed Nader.
By the end of the month, Nader is likely to qualify in three more battlegrounds Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin that don't require his supporters to collect too many signatures.
"If Nader keeps Kerry from winning in any state, it helps Bush," said James Davis, a political science professor at Washington University. "The votes could be so close that if he gets 1 or 2 percent in some states, the other side wins."
Democrats haven't stood idle. In dozens of states, Democratic state parties have backed myriad legal challenges to Nader's efforts to win ballot access, frustrating his supporters and draining his resources.
"Our state parties made the decision to make sure that if Ralph Nader wanted to get on the ballot, that he was playing by the rules," said Democratic National Committee Jano Cabrera. He said the national party is not funding the efforts but fully supports what state parties are doing.
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