Iran's nuclear plans may be unstoppable

WASHINGTON — The core of President Bush's foreign and national security policy is that he will not permit the world's most dangerous regimes to acquire the world's most dangerous weapons.

But Iran, a charter member of Bush's "axis of evil," is believed to be only one to three years away from being able to make nuclear weapons, and a growing number of nuclear experts worry that there may be no way to stop it from becoming the world's 10th nuclear weapons state.

"We can't stop Iran from developing the technology and reaching the breakout point," says Anthony Cordesman, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington.

Anxiety about Iran's bomb plans have new prominence because of accusations that a Pentagon official passed an internal memo on U.S. policy toward Iran to a pro-Israel lobbying group and ultimately to Israel. Though the group and the Israeli government both deny any spying, Israel is deeply worried about an Iranian bomb.

U.N. inspectors have caught Iran hiding nuclear infrastructure, including equipment at military bases. In July, Iran announced that it had resumed manufacturing centrifuges to make nuclear fuel. Iranian leaders say the fuel is for reactors that generate electricity. But the technology can also be used for bombs. At a news conference in Tehran on Saturday, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami denied that Iran wanted weapons but said it was Iran's "legitimate right" to be able to enrich uranium, and "no country can prevent us from achieving it."

Wary of engaging Iran, the Bush administration has left it to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency and three European countries to try to persuade the Iranians to scale back their nuclear program. Neither approach appears to be working. An agreement reached last October between Iran and Britain, France and Germany is unraveling. Under it, the Iranians accepted short-notice inspections of nuclear infrastructure and suspended uranium enrichment in return for promises of assistance for civilian nuclear energy. Iran has threatened to resume enrichment in October.

John Bolton, undersecretary of state for arms control and international security affairs, said the Iranians had told the French, British and Germans in July that they could enrich enough uranium for a bomb in a year and make a weapon in three years. Europeans deny that such threats were made but have not challenged Bolton on the record.