Nov. 2 crucial in Romney strategy

As Gov. Mitt Romney strives to raise his profile and emerge as a Republican leader nationally, nothing is more pivotal than the Nov. 2 election results, in Massachusetts and in the presidential race, to determine what is in store for his political future, party strategists and analysts say.

The election returns will lay out the first clear road map for Romney, allowing him to make his most important decision: whether to seek re-election as governor in 2006 and then evaluate his presidential chances or to serve out his current term and move on to a 2008 presidential campaign, free of the burdens and political sniping on Beacon Hill.

His forays onto the national scene have become more frequent since the beginning of the year. They began with his battle against same-sex marriage in Massachusetts and picked up when the Bush campaign used him to attack Senator John F. Kerry's presidential candidacy. More recently, Romney has been promoting his book about his experience running the host committee for the Winter Olympics. Next week he will be in Athens at the Summer Olympic Games, and he is scheduled to address the Republican National Convention the night before Bush makes his address.

Romney and his aides insist that, amid all the exposure he is getting, the governor is focused on winning another four-year term. "The governor expects to be a candidate for re-election, but we have nothing to formally announce at this early stage," said Eric Fehrnstrom, Romney's director of communications.

But as they watch the governor raise his national image, Massachusetts political leaders from both parties are becoming convinced that he will not run again if he decides he can be a viable candidate for president in 2008.

They say that what will most drive Romney's plans is the outcome of the race between Kerry and Bush.

But the results of Romney's campaign to elect Republicans to the Legislature, a battle which has put his prestige on the line, will also have a strong bearing. If the GOP makes some gains, several Senate seats and a couple of House seats, the governor will have a significant victory in a Democratic stronghold that could impress national Republican leaders and audiences.

If he fails to make a dent, his argument that he is an effective leader in his home state will be undercut, although some analysts think the damage will be minimal. "That would be a problem, but a short-term problem," said Jeffrey M. Berry, a Tufts University political science professor. "It is too much a local story."