"This suggests that the most unusual aspect of Colorado River runoff during the 20th century is the high runoff volume in certain periods (1906-20, 1983-85), not the drought periods," the report reads, which adds credence to the idea that the wet years of the 20th century were abnormal and the West is returning to a more normal and drier state.

Hayes said the tree-ring analysis is not necessarily an accurate measurement for Utah. "But Utah provides a great amount of runoff for the Colorado River."

Does it seem reasonable to Hayes that the West is in a record drought? "When you have a drought as widespread as the current drought, I think it becomes hard to attach individual statistics to the entire thing, but I think overall that's a fairly good representation. This is a multi-year drought, probably as severe as some we've had in the past couple of centuries," Hayes said.

University of Utah researcher McCool just returned from a trip around Lake Powell and the Glen Canyon area and said he saw a remarkable change in the landscape. "It's stunning to sit at the Hite Overlook at Lake Powell and look at a large area going back to nature as the reservoir diminishes in size."

Lake Powell, which took about 20 years to fill after completion in 1964, has been steadily dropping in recent years and now is about 40 percent of capacity. "Environmental groups want to drain Lake Powell and restore Glen Canyon. I don't believe it will happen because of politics. But Mother Nature may do it," McCool said.

Owen Lammers, executive director of Living Rivers Colorado Riverkeep, a Moab environmental group, would like to see the restoration of the Glen Canyon to its pre-dam state and said the creation of the dam has actually meant the loss of 30 million acre-feet of water due to evaporation and seepage.

"We've been on the razor's edge with Colorado River water, and those in position to do something didn't want to do anything with it because it would introduce court battles and hard decisions. Now there is no choice," Lammers said.

His group believes the Glen Canyon Dam ultimately is an inefficient way to store water. "When they built the dam, the powers that be thought they were doing the right thing, but now we have different information and we need to alter our mind-set to meet the times."

The best way to store Colorado River water is to put it in underground aquifers, thereby losing only 1-2 percent, Lammers said.

He believes Lake Powell will cease being a recreation spot in the future as it draws down, but the area need not lose its recreational value as vacationers give up houseboats on the lake for boats on the river. "It will become more like Moab with land-based and river-based activities."

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E-mail: lweist@desnews.com