Athens gambles future

ATHENS, Greece — By almost any measure, the Olympics flunk basic economics.

The bidders spend lavishly and make costly promises. The winning city opens the vault to build stadiums, venues and villages that may have questionable value after the Games. Local commerce is disrupted for years. Then there's skyrocketing costs for payroll and security.

And it all happens with the knowledge that the whole venture will probably end up losing lots of public money.

But cities keep slugging it out to play host. Five are in the running for the 2012 Summer Games. Some cities are even gearing up bids for the 2014 Winter Olympics.

"On paper it doesn't make sense," said Larry Hadley, a University of Dayton expert in the economics of sporting events. "But with the Olympics there are many other factors than just the bottom line."

Perhaps it's the seduction of being in the world spotlight for more than two weeks to promote local attractions, culture and talents.

Or maybe it's the work of developers, political ladder-climbers and other civic chieftains who stand to benefit from the Olympics. There's also the still-solid faith in the Olympics as a springboard for the local economy and image.

"You need to keep it in perspective. Compared with a country's total economic output, the Olympics cannot be the savior that some people believe," Hadley said. "But nothing about the Olympics seems to be kept in perspective."

Look no further than Athens.

The final price tag for the 2004 Olympics may approach $12 billion, including a record of at least $1.5 billion for security. The tally — nearly double estimates a few years ago — could haunt taxpayers for at least a decade, some analysts predict.

The massive upgrades needed for the Olympic homecoming gave Greece one of Europe's fastest growth rates. But a post-Olympic slowdown looms. How steep and deep is what everyone is wondering.

"We are going to bankrupt Greece so big companies and big interests can get rich off the Olympics," said Nana Vafidi, a leader of Athens' small anti-Olympic movement. "This is the real Greek tragedy."

But it's not just about the money, others insist.

The Olympics gave Athens what it desperately needed: a reason and deadline to fix the messy and ill-planned urban sprawl under the Acropolis. The city now has a suburban rail that links the city and airport and its first tram line since the old tracks were dug up in the early 1960s.