Can Kerry keep the momentum going?

BOSTON — Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry can expect at least a modest bounce in popularity following his star-studded convention, where the most serious hitch was a balky balloon drop. But now he faces an important question: Can he keep his momentum going until November?

The initial signs Friday were favorable for the Massachusetts senator: strong Nielsen ratings for his acceptance speech; a wave of generally positive news coverage; a record-breaking day of fund-raising that pulled in more than $5 million on the Internet; and a poll that suggested support for President Bush might be slipping.

But Kerry's strategists warn that the contest is tight, focused on a handful of battleground states and a relatively small number of undecided voters who are unlikely to settle on a choice until the fall.

"We never expected great movement in the horse race (to result from the convention)," Kerry strategist Tad Devine said. "We just expected to build here, not to end the race."

Neutral analysts said that Kerry largely succeeded at the tasks he set for himself at the convention: introducing himself to millions of voters who had not tuned into the presidential race before and conveying a message that a Kerry administration would be strong on defense in the struggle against terrorism.

"I think Kerry comes out (of the convention) having unified his Democratic base," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of a nonpartisan political newsletter. "Maybe he didn't close the deal, but he moved the ball down the field. I still expect a close race," he said. "Kerry should get a two- to four-point bounce (in the poll numbers) and then, unless the Republicans mess up, they'll get a two- to four-point bounce from their convention" in early September.

The actual increase in support Kerry reaps from the convention — especially from having his message showcased in news coverage — won't be known until next week. But every presidential candidate in recent history has benefited from at least a modest bounce, with the exception of George S. McGovern, the 1972 Democratic nominee, whose acceptance speech was delayed by convention chaos until after 2 a.m. and was seen live by fewer voters.

Kerry's speech Thursday evening was seen by an estimated 24.4 million viewers, according to Nielsen — compared to the 21.1 million who watched Democratic nominee Al Gore in 2000.

In another rough index of the convention's potential impact, the Kerry campaign said it had raised $5.2 million on the Internet Thursday, breaking its own record of $3 million set the day before.