Political experts don't see close race

A national conference of state legislators wrapped up Friday with predictions that the President Bush/Sen. John Kerry election won't be as close as many now believe.

With either a Bush re-election win or a Kerry victory, the victor will come away with a clear majority of votes, conservative editor William Kristol said.

Democratic political commentator Donna Brazzile, who ran former Vice President Al Gore's 2000 campaign, says Kerry will win. Not only that, but Democrats may well take the majority of the U.S. Senate as well, she told legislators attending the final session of the five-day National Conference of State Legislators.

Kristol and Brazzile's discussion followed a morning time slot that was reserved for White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card, who canceled his NCSL appearance. Card "canceled his whole trip out West," Utah House Speaker Marty Stephens said. "He was just needed back in Washington."

Stephens stepped down Friday after a year as president of NCSL.

Even with no presidential candidate or top staffer to keynote the convention, Stephens still proclaimed Utah's first attempt at hosting the annual convention of the nation's largest legislative group a success. "I'm just very happy how things went. You are always scared about" hosting such a large event, "but things went very well."

The convention officially ended when the remaining legislators passed dozens of resolutions, used as lobbying tools with Congress, and Stephens passed the presidential gavel to Maryland Democratic House member John Hurson.

Brazzile and Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard, said the presidential election this year will have coattails.

If Kerry wins as she expects, and the U.S. Senate goes Democratic, Brazzile said that momentum could mean 3-4 percentage points for Democratic legislative races in the dozen "battleground" states in play in the presidential election.

"I didn't think this several months ago," said Brazzile. But Democrats today have a real chance to take the Senate because of strong Democratic candidates in Colorado, Illinois, Alaska and other states that, last spring, looked like they would go Republican.