Will Utahns relate to Demo convention?

Pignanelli: The presidential candidate selection process was crowded with governors and members of Congress, some prior contenders. Through a strong grassroots effort, a Democratic U.S. senator garnered enough support to enter the convention as the presumed nominee. Against the conventional wisdom to pick a governor for running mate, a fellow Senate colleague was chosen for the vice president slot. The atmosphere at the convention was charged as delegates were demonstrably outraged at an arrogant incumbent Republican president unwilling to remove American troops from a foreign conflict while the country suffered increasing inflation and unemployment.

While familiar to us in 2004, this scene actually describes the 1972 Democratic National Convention in Miami. Sens. George McGovern and Thomas Eagleton emerged from the meeting with passionate support, but the country perceived the event as a disorganized mess, dominated by extremists (LaVarr calls them "flower children"). McGovern was never able to recover.

Thousands of Democrats besieging Boston this week — including a score of prominent Utahns — know the public perception of a party convention can dramatically impact the November elections. Dan Jones, the pre-eminent pollster and patriarch of Utah politics, analyzes conventions are defined by certain themes or events — usually negative (i.e. the Chicago riots of 1968, the 1992 "cultural war" speech by Patrick Buchanan). Jones offers hard evidence that problems plaguing local Democrats began in July 1972, when many Utahns were appalled at the fanatic activities of the national convention.

Most political experts, including Jones, predict John Kerry's success depends on more than Bush bashing — he must define his leadership abilities. Kerry will rise to the challenge by finally offering the country what President Bush has failed to deliver: a solid plan for Iraq and a strong platform on domestic issues,especially health careand job creation.

The Kerry campaign is smart and understands the lessons of 1972. For the next several days, Americans will hear of bread-and-butter economic concerns and how Democrats truly understand the hardships faced by families with a diminishing paycheck. The rhetoric on volatile social issues will be nonexistent. Moreover, Utahns will find they have much in common with vice presidential nominee Sen. John Edwards: a committed family man from humble beginnings who devours a six-pack of Diet Coke every day.

Prior Democratic nominees with successful conventions faced their opponents with a huge bump in the polls (Dukakis in 1988, Clinton in 1992). By the end of this week, Kerry-Edwards will be leading by at least 15 percent.