Poll delivers a bounce to Kerry ticket

WASHINGTON — John Kerry is getting a boost from his selection of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as his running mate, a USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll shows.

The Democratic ticket now leads President Bush and Vice President Cheney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, according to the survey taken Thursday through Sunday, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2 percent. The Kerry-Edwards lead widens to 8 points, 50 percent-42 percent, among registered voters.

The choice of Edwards helped Kerry consolidate support among Democrats and those who lean Democratic. Three weeks ago, 85 percent supported Kerry. Now 92 percent do.

But Edwards didn't draw more support from his fellow Southerners. In the June poll, 44 percent backed Kerry, the same number as in the new survey.

"We're in for a roller coaster ride," says Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign. A week ago, he issued a cautionary memo to supporters predicting that Kerry, with a bounce from his vice presidential choice and the Democratic convention, would lead by more than 15 points by the end of the month. By Labor Day, after the Republican convention, he predicts the race will be even.

But Kerry's pollster, Mark Mellman, says the Democratic bounce is likely to be limited because most Democrats already support the ticket. "Challengers sometimes get convention and vice presidential selection bounces because they have not consolidated their partisan base," he said in a memo. Kerry "has already accomplished that goal."

Still, Kerry campaign advisers cite the results as proof that the campaign has "momentum" from the upbeat introduction of Edwards by Kerry's side last week.

"The new Kerry-Edwards team really solidifies the differences in vision and values between us and the Bush-Cheney administration," Kerry spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter says.

The margin of error in the samples of likely voters and registered voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The Democrats' lead is still within that margin of error.

It was the first time Kerry has reached the 50 percent threshold among likely voters since he emerged as the presumed Democratic nominee in early March. Among registered voters, Kerry now holds the biggest lead either candidate has enjoyed this year.

Three weeks ago, Kerry trailed Bush by a single point among likely voters and led Bush by a single point among registered voters.