Self-rule is just first of big steps in Iraq

BAGHDAD, Iraq — The interim Iraqi administration takes on the mantle of sovereignty this week. And then the tough work begins: organize and hold three national elections and draft a new constitution in 18 months, all while trying to rebuild the country — and holding the insurgents at bay.

If things go according to plan, Iraq will emerge as a democratic state in a region of authoritarian rulers, and the American and other foreign troops can go home.

But the road is littered with potential minefields.

Elections could put Shiite Muslim political parties with ties to Iran in power and set the stage for a clergy-dominated theocratic state.

A sharp escalation in terrorist attacks could upend the transition timetable — or lead to a military-backed authoritarian ruler being voted into power by Iraqis more interested in an end to bombs, bullets and kidnappings than in Western-style democracy.

And skeptics question whether, under even the best circumstances, Iraq's conservative, tribal-based Muslim society — divided both ethnically and religiously — can produce anything resembling the democratic dreams of those in Washington who promoted the war.

After the transfer of power Wednesday, the next step is to convene a conference of about 1,000 prominent Iraqis to choose an Interim National Council that will advise the interim government and keep an eye on it, too.

Influential sheiks and clans that did not get posts in the new government are likely to be represented on the council. A 60-member commission has been working for weeks to identify those who will be invited to the conference, which is to be held sometime in July.

The idea for the monitoring council is to expand participation in the political process. It's hoped that will allay fears of the influential Shiite clergy that the new government, dominated by Westernized figures with close links to the Americans, will make decisions on the future of Iraq that the clerics think should await a future, elected leadership.

National elections are to be held in January to choose a Transitional Government.

Electing a new leadership only seven months after the interim regime takes over might seem unnecessarily burdensome, given the precarious security situation and the fact that new electoral laws and voter rolls have to be drawn up from scratch.

It's the result of a compromise between the Shiite clergy and the U.S.-led occupation authority.