Draft talent young, younger

Kevin O'Connor calls it "a much younger draft than usual."

Walt Perrin can't help but concur.

"I don't think anybody knows if it's gonna be a good draft for probably three years," said Perrin, the Jazz's director of player personnel. "Because there are so many young kids."

For at least that reason, Perrin suggests, it is a good thing Utah owns three selections in the opening round of Thursday's 2004 NBA Draft — Nos. 14 (their own), 16 (acquired in the Tom Gugliotta trade with Phoenix) and 21 (acquired in the Glen Rice swap with Houston).

That is because youth equals greater uncertainty, and a higher number of chances only increases the likelihood of striking gold like the Jazz did in 1999 — when they also had three first-round picks.

From that year, No. 19 overall pick Quincy Lewis did not exactly pan out; he is out of the league, last seen playing in Spain. Scott Padgett, selected at No. 28, fared somewhat better, though he finished last season with Houston, not even a member of the Rockets' regular rotation in postseason play.

Between those two, though, the Jazz — run by a different front-office regime than the present at the time of the '99 draft — did unearth a gem.

Andrei Kirilenko, taken at No. 24, spent some time stashed in his native Russia, then enjoyed a breakout season in 2003-04 that resulted in his first NBA All-Star Game appearance.

"I agree (with) that theory," Perrin said. "Because of the fact there are so many young kids, because of the chance you might be able to hit it big with one or two of those picks, it's very important that we have those extra picks.

"This way," he added, "you have a chance of at least hitting one out of three."

If the Jazz had one of the top six or so picks in the draft, they might be thinking differently. That's why they've been trying to trade up, and still may.

There is, after all, a supposed discernible drop in talent after the top two prospects in this year's draft, Connecticut power forward Emeka Okafor and Georgia high school power forward Dwight Howard, and another supposedly distinct drop after about No. 8.

But after that, the opening round is a collection of mostly barely shaving, not-quite-ready-for-prime-time players.