2nd District primary a real race

Jon Huntsman Jr. has a large lead in the GOP governor's race as Tuesday's primary election approaches, and Rep. Chris Cannon is well ahead of his Republican challenger in the 3rd Congressional District, a new Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV poll shows.

Deseret Morning News graphicPollRequires Adobe Acrobat.

But pollster Dan Jones & Associates found in a new survey that it's a real horse race in the 2nd Congressional District, with John Swallow barely ahead of Tim Bridgewater among registered voters. And nearly one third of voters are still undecided, even this late in the campaign.

Jones found that Swallow leads Bridgewater 29-24 percent. When the poll's margin of error is considered, the race is a statistical tie, noted Jones.

But 31 percent said they were undecided between Swallow and Bridgewater. Six percent said they favored someone else, 1 percent refused to answer and 9 percent said they weren't going to vote Tuesday.

"In all my years of polling, I've never seen such a large 'undecided' bloc just before a primary," said Jones. That high number is especially odd "considering that this is a rematch" of the 2002 GOP 2nd District primary election, added Jones.

While the 2nd District may be up in the air, not so with the governor's primary race between Huntsman, a former ambassador, and Nolan Karras, a former Utah House speaker and current chairman of the State Board of Regents.

Among all voters, Huntsman leads Karras, 57-18 percent, according to the survey conducted late last week.

Cannon, also, is doing OK among his 3rd District voters, Jones found. The four-term congressman leads former Utah House member Matt Throckmorton 44-23 percent, found Jones, who has polled in Utah for 30 years and teaches political science at the University of Utah. The winner in that race goes against Democrat Beau Babka.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Swallow barely leads Bridgewater in various voter categories. But, said Jones, when just those "highly interested" in the 2nd District GOP primary are counted, Bridgewater actually pulls slightly ahead of Swallow.

Two years ago, Swallow edged out Bridgewater in the primary, only to lose a squeaker final election to Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah.

The voter turnout Tuesday and last-minute campaigning will likely tell the tale in the 2nd District, Jones said.