Tim Bridgewater says the 2nd Congressional District race of 2002 won't be repeated this year.

But so far, things are looking about the same.

Bridgewater beat fellow Republican John Swallow in both the 2002 and 2004 state GOP conventions.

But then, in 2002, things turned sour, first for Bridgewater, then for Republicans.

He lost to Swallow in the 2002 Republican primary. Swallow then went on to lose to Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson.

A new Deseret News/KSL-TV poll shows that a similar trend could happen this year unless Bridgewater — and later the Republicans — turn things around.

If the GOP primary election were today, Swallow would get 33 percent of the vote to Bridgewater's 14 percent, a new survey by Dan Jones & Associates shows. Nearly 40 percent are undecided.

In a final match-up against Matheson, both of the Republicans come up short.

If the November election were held today, Matheson leads Swallow 55-29 percent.

Matheson leads Bridgewater 58-24 percent, Jones found.

Considering that Bridgewater ran a primary race just two years ago against Swallow, he still is not well known, the poll shows.

Among those who told Jones they are Republicans, Swallow leads Bridgewater 48-12 percent. Thirty-nine percent of Republicans said they don't know who they favor in the primary despite the fact it's a rematch of 2002.

Even among those who told Jones they have a high interest in the primary, a third of 2nd District voters are undecided.

Only registered Republicans can vote in the 2nd District primary June 22. But unaffiliated voters, those belonging to no party, can register as Republicans at the polls and pick up a GOP ballot.

In many ways, not just in the polls and conventions, the Swallow-Bridgewater race this year is a reflection in a still pool.

Bridgewater has been pounding Swallow, saying he's the guy who can bring Republicans voters home and win some independents' ballots as well, putting together a coalition that can beat Matheson.

Swallow is saying he can raise the money to defeat the always-well-funded Matheson while complaining that Bridgewater, a millionaire, is self-funding his campaign to the detriment of grassroots support.

"We can't win this seat if 40,000 Republicans" vote for Matheson, Bridgewater complained last week.

Swallow says that won't happen again, that he's building on his 2002 campaign, raising even more money and developing a district-wide GOP grassroots organization.

Jones found that Matheson gets 26 percent of the Republican vote in a match-up against Swallow, whom Matheson beat by fewer than 2,000 votes two years ago.

Matheson gets a whopping 71 percent of the independent vote against Swallow, Jones found.

Bridgewater doesn't fare any better, at least in this poll six months from Election Day. Jones found that Matheson gets 32 percent of the GOP vote against Bridgewater; 75 percent of the independent vote.

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E-mail: bbjr@desnews.com