Iraq overshadows campaigns

War could end up as the central issue in November election

Published: Sunday, May 16 2004 12:00 a.m. MDT

WASHINGTON — The turmoil in Iraq is changing the political equation for President Bush and Democratic rival John Kerry.

While the war is eroding public support for Bush, it is also making it harder for Kerry to define himself for voters or promote his domestic priorities.

Strategists from both parties had suggested the election probably would come down to a few states, perhaps turning on different issues in different states.

Some analysts now are suggesting the race could broaden into a national referendum on Bush's Iraq policy.

As president, Bush has the ability to drive Iraq news coverage; for example, his decision to send his embattled defense secretary, Donald H. Rumsfeld, to Iraq for a surprise visit last week.

With fewer options as the challenger, Kerry has called for Rumsfeld's resignation and accused Bush of running an "extraordinarily mismanaged and ineptly prosecuted war."

Those in Kerry's camp have expressed delight at recent polls showing Bush's approval rating at the lowest of his presidency. But Bush's drop in the polls has not translated directly into a surge for Kerry.

Also, the Massachusetts senator has had to walk a cautious line as he decides how hard to go after Bush as commander in chief without risking a backlash.

Kerry already has drawn criticism from Republicans who accuse him of politicizing the prisoner-abuse issue.

"To suggest that this is a political issue is to fundamentally misunderstand the gravity of the situation," said Kerry pollster Mark Mellman. "Voters recognize that this is a very serious issue. They recognize that Republicans are raising questions, that independents are raising questions, that all Americans are raising questions about this."

Images of Iraqi prisoner abuse by U.S. soldiers, the gruesome deaths of American civilians at the hands of Iraqi militants, a rising death toll and other calamities have overtaken the political agendas of both parties.

Bush and Kerry spent last week stressing domestic issues. Bush campaigned on education, Kerry on health care.

It was hard for their message to get out when local and regional news increasingly is influenced by pictures and stories from Iraq.

A story on Rumsfeld's visit to Baghdad was the top front-page story, for instance, in Friday's Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. An account of Kerry's visit to Little Rock on Thursday received lesser billing.

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