"In my opinion, at this stage of the game, I seriously doubt — if it makes it through the House floor — I seriously doubt the Senate will follow through with the same action. I seriously doubt the president and the military establishment" will follow through, he said.

"I think it politically makes a few people look good, in my opinion. I think it's more of a media thing than anything."

Hansen is considered a potential appointee to the base closure commission.

Whether one base is more vulnerable to closure than another is also unknown, as there is no clear sense of how the relative worth of each bases is being evaluated, Hansen said.

"I think almost all bases are on an endangered species list, and I don't think (Hill) is any more vulnerable than the majority of bases. There's probably a small percentage of bases that are less vulnerable than others, but I think everybody else has to worry."

Mayfield said he is optimistic about Hill's chances. Several of the functions and missions performed there are unique to Hill, and although they may not require large numbers of personnel, the programs may be enough to buoy the whole base.

"There are a lot of positive things as far as Hill," he said.

The alliance, which has worked through previous base closure threats, commissioned a study that found the loss of Hill would be devastating for Davis County and a setback to the Utah economy. Conducted by the University of Utah's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, the study predicted per-capita income levels would drop by more than $2,600 in Davis County and $542 statewide.

There are some 24,000 civilian jobs at Hill, more than at other bases nationwide. Those jobs pay an average of almost $60,000 annually, more than twice what the typical Utahn earns.

Committee members tried to eliminate the base-closing process Wednesday, but GOP leaders blocked the move, arguing it would provoke the White House into vetoing the 2005 defense authorization bill.

"The only thing better than delaying a (base-closing) process is doing away with it altogether," said Rep. Gene Taylor, R-Miss., sponsor of the base-closing measure.

Last year, an armed services subcommittee adopted Taylor's plan to eliminate the 2005 round of base closings, but GOP leaders scuttled the legislation. Increased pressure within their ranks forced them to offer the two-year delay as a compromise Wednesday.

"There's no chance to kill a BRAC," said Rep. Joel Hefley, R-Colo., chairman of the military readiness subcommittee. "The timing is simply not right, and delaying BRAC is simply a more sensible approach."

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Contributing: Gannett News Service; Laura Hancock, Deseret Morning News

E-mail: jdobner@desnews.com; lisa@desnews.com