Approval rating is below 50%

Published: Tuesday, May 11 2004 12:00 a.m. MDT

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President Bush's job approval rating remained below 50 percent in three new polls amid voter concerns about the war in Iraq, the economy and rising gasoline prices.

John Zogby, president of the Zogby International survey firm, sees the trend so alarming that he is predicting a Kerry victory this fall. His April poll showed Kerry leading Bush by 54-35 percent among those who cited the economy as the top issue, and by 57-36 percent among those citing Iraq. Bush leads, 64-30 percent, among those who say fighting terrorism is their top issue.

Zogby said his current poll is finding less than 10 percent respondents say they are undecided between Kerry and Bush. Usually, 20 percent of respondents haven't made up their minds yet, he said. That means there are few voters for either candidate can reach out to.

"Traditionally, undecideds break toward the challenger," Zogby said in an interview.

A Fox News-Opinion Dynamics poll taken May 4-5 found 49 percent of registered voters approve of the job Bush is doing as president and 43 percent disapprove. A May 3-6 American Research Group Inc. survey put Bush's approval rating at 45 percent, with 49 percent disapproving. In a USA Today-Cable News Network poll taken Friday through Sunday, Bush's approval rating was 46 percent with 51 percent disapproving, the lowest of his term.

Bush and Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry also remained in a statistical tie when voters were asked whom they would choose if the election were held now.

"This is more of a referendum on Bush than it is on the merits of John Kerry," said Dick Bennett, president of the American Research Group. "The real question is whether we stick with Bush for four more years or do we try someone else."

Both surveys were conducted as Bush, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and members of Congress were reacting to publication of photos showing U.S. soldiers abusing detainees at an Iraqi prison. Bush apologized for the abuses last Wednesday, and Rumsfeld did the same on Friday. Kerry, a four-term senator from Massachusetts, was joined by Democratic congressional leaders in calling for Rumsfeld's resignation.

U.S. forces in Iraq also endured their deadliest month in war during April, with at least 140 soldiers, sailors and Marines killed by insurgents.

At the same time, slow job creation and rising gasoline prices have dampened optimism about the economy, a University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment, released April 30, showed.

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