From Deseret News archives:

No sure bets at Utah's conventions

Published: Friday, May 7, 2004 7:53 a.m. MDT
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And in the 3rd Congressional District, Rep. Chris Cannon hopes delegates will, again, relieve him of pesky intra-party challengers and give him a clear shot at re-election.

But local attorney Greg Hawkins believes he has a chance of knocking Cannon right out of office. That's a big job — getting 60 percent of the delegate vote to unseat an entrenched, rich incumbent.

Former state Rep. Matt Throckmorton is also in the 3rd District race. In the 2002 convention, Cannon beat Throckmorton and another challenger to win the nomination outright, avoiding a primary.

Besides nominating Matheson, Democrats will also vote in the 1st Congressional District and U.S. Senate races.

It's probable they will pick former Attorney General Paul Van Dam to run against GOP incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett, who has no GOP challenger.

And Logan City Council chairman Steve Thompson may well win the nomination of newcomer Brian Watkins.

Do I have any guesses?

Yes.

I think Walker's career ends Saturday. Some may see that as sad, but Walker is considered a moderate who is walking into a den of conservatives.

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Some of her vetoes of 2004 legislative bills hurt her. She's tried to move to the right the last several weeks (softening her stand on tuition tax credits being just one example). But it's tough to merge right when the lane is blocked by seven guys already there.

Hansen, also, will not come out of the convention, I believe.

But rumors persist that Hansen's real goal in this race was to head up Utah's tough fight to keep Hill Air Force Base during an upcoming round of base closures. The military institution is critical to northern Utah's economy and a Holy Grail that Hansen has fought for for more than 30 years.

Hellewell and Benson will also be eliminated in early rounds of voting.

Karras is a long shot. Stephens has a better chance.

That leaves Huntsman and Lampropoulos as my favorites to emerge.

But with the preferential ballot being used by party leaders in the convention, there are no sure bets. If a lot of delegates list Walker as their second or third choices, or Stephens or Karras, the tables can turn.

I also think Swallow and Bridgewater will be in another primary — a repeat of 2002.

And maybe, just maybe, Cannon is forced into another primary (he faced one in 1998), this time with Hawkins.

One thing is clear: Utahns are in for an intense six weeks between the state conventions and the June 22 primary day.

You may be hearing a lot about Huntsman and Lampropoulos (or two other Republicans for governor); calls and mailings from Swallow and Bridgewater; maybe even some Cannon and Hawkins literature in your mailbox.

The real races in 2004 start Monday.


Deseret Morning News political editor Bob Bernick Jr. may be reached by e-mail at bbjr@desnews.com

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