Are revenues on pace with pupil needs?

Utah's expecting more than 140,000 new students in the next 10 years, but it looks like they might bring with them enough taxpayers to pay for their education — plus put in a little extra money.

That's according to Office of Legislative Research and General Council projections forwarded Wednesday to lawmakers on the Education Interim Committee.

"We have the potential to weather that (enrollment) increase, if I understand this," said Rep. Greg Hughes, R-Draper and a committee member.

Still, the economy might not cooperate as well as it did, even in the tough times of the 1980s. So far this decade, personal income growth is below that of the 1980s, when the nation was in a recession.

"These are 'what if's' for sure," said Rep. Carol Spackman Moss, D-Holladay. Public schools in Utah receive the least per-student dollars in the country, despite a relatively high tax burden. That could be attributed to Utah's high birthrate, according to the 2000 Census.

Utah's total per-pupil spending, counting capital costs (which the State Office of Education doesn't report because they're so volatile), is about $6,400, policy analyst Connie Steffen reported.

She said two main factors play into which way that number could go: Personal income growth, and the percent of personal income that goes to schools.

In order for per-pupil spending to stay the same or slightly rise to about $6,800 by 2015, personal income must grow by at least 3 percent — it grew 3.2 percent in the economically weak 1980s. Plus, about 5.82 percent of personal income, the historic average between 1980 and 2003 — has to go to public schools, Steffen reported.

If real personal income were to grow by 3.75 percent, and the proportion going to schools remains stable, she estimated that per-student spending could inch close to $7,400 by 2015.

If personal income grows 4.5 percent a year, per-student spending could grow an average 4 percent a year, like it did in the prosperous 1990s, and pan out to be around $7,900 per student, Steffen reported.

---

E-mail: jtcook@desnews.com