Memo may be a Rorschach test

WASHINGTON — Questions about the Bush administration's vigilance dominated Condoleezza Rice's appearance last week before the commission investigating the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

But with the release Saturday night of a classified warning delivered to President Bush at his Texas ranch one month before the attacks, questions of credibility may become a growing challenge for Rice — and the president she serves.

The virtually unprecedented publication of the classified Aug. 6, 2001, presidential daily briefing is bound to stir intense debate in the coming days over whether Rice was misleading commissioners in her testimony last week when she described the report as an "historical memo" and "not a warning."

Much of the page-and-a-half document focuses on information about Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida developed from 1997 through 1999. But it also reported that "FBI information . . . indicates patterns of suspicious activity in this country consistent with preparations for hijackings or other types of attacks."

Senior White House officials briefing reporters late Saturday said that assertion did not reflect any specific intelligence relevant to the Sept. 11 plot. But Bush now faces the likelihood that many critics will view the briefing as precisely a warning — and ask whether the administration responded urgently enough at the time, or described it honestly in Rice's testimony last week.

"Maybe I'm lost in a fog, but how much more information could you get?" asked James Carville, a veteran Democratic strategist. "Of course, it was a warning."

At once troubling and vague, the memo may prove to be something of a Rorschach test, offering evidence both for Bush's supporters and critics.

The Bush administration had long resisted publication of the memo, and observers said the decision to release it underscores the pressure Bush is feeling amid criticism of his actions by former White House counter-terrorism chief Richard Clarke, and public hearings by the independent commission investigating the Sept. 11 attacks.

"They wouldn't have released it unless they felt huge pressure, so they were up against it," says Bruce Buchanan, a political scientist at the University of Texas. "And they released it in the knowledge that it would probably raise questions about what Condi Rice said, which further indicates a certain level of concern and anxiety — if not desperation."

Bush's political situation doesn't appear that dire.