HAFB closure would hurt large civilian work force

Hill Air Force Base has a much higher ratio of civilian to military employees than other bases nationwide, which is good for the local economy, but a negative if the base were to close after the next round of base closings.

The Air Force base and logistics center south of Ogden has dodged the bullet on the previous four rounds of base closings and may not show up on the next list of bases under consideration, expected to be released in the spring of 2005.

In a report to the Wasatch Front Economic Forum at the Alta Club Wednesday, the authors of a study commissioned by the Utah Defense Alliance to examine a worst-case scenario for Utah if the base is closed, said such a closure would be devastating for the Davis County economy and harmful to the state overall.

Jan Crispin-Little, senior analyst, and Pamela S. Perlich, senior research economist, both at the University of Utah's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, reported to the members of the forum they developed their report based on data supplied by Hill officials. However, unlike the round of base closings in 1994, Hill officials were to a degree uncooperative this time, Crispin-Little said.

"It was very difficult to get information this time," she said. "In 1994 they gave us a tour of the base. This time they wouldn't even let us up on the base. The issue is not that they don't want to be helpful, but they are afraid for their careers."

Crispin-Little said she understands Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld sent a threatening letter to personnel at military bases warning them not to discuss upcoming base closings under the Base Realignment and Closure process. "The base was noncooperative this round because they were given strict instructions not to talk about BRAC."

Rumsfeld and the Pentagon want to close what is rumored to be 25 percent of existing military bases to save money. Rumsfeld has refused to be pinned down on the exact number.

Crispin-Little, who gave Wednesday's presentation, said she doesn't believe Hill will be closed, although she offered no specific reason.

One of the worst things that could happen to Hill, she said, is if the Air Force closes it and then hangs onto the land and doesn't allow private industry to create new jobs on the property. "The military seems predispositioned to shuttering bases and then hanging onto the property."

As an example, she said, Fort Ord was closed by the Army nearly 10 years ago but only 25-30 percent of it has been released to the public sector.