An incumbent shake-up?

The 2004 election season could lead to something not seen in 28 years: The defeat of two major-office incumbents.

Gov. Olene Walker and Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah, are both seen as vulnerable, even though both do well in early election-year polls.

Deseret News graphicUtah's losing incumbentsRequires Adobe Acrobat.

Not since 1976, when the film "Rocky" won the best picture Oscar, have two incumbents in major offices been voted out in Utah.

That year was a blow for Democrats, who saw Republican newcomer Orrin Hatch defeat Sen. Frank Moss, D-Utah. And in a scandal-ridden re-election bid, 2nd District Rep. Alan Howe, D-Utah, who was cited for soliciting sex from a female police decoy, lost to upstart Republican Dan Marriott.

Walker, a Republican and former GOP Gov. Mike Leavitt's lieutenant governor, took office when Leavitt resigned this past November. Eight Republicans are challenging Walker for the top executive post.

Matheson barely won re-election in his newly drawn 2nd District in 2002, gleaning a 1,641-vote victory, out of 224,098 cast, over Republican John Swallow, who along with two other Republicans is challenging Matheson again.

The new huge geographic district is more Republican than the old Salt Lake County-based 2nd District, which Matheson won in 2000 after Derek Smith knocked Rep. Merrill Cook, R-Utah, out of office in the GOP primary.

Cook, who has once again jumped from the Republican Party to run this year as an independent for Salt Lake County mayor, stumbled in 2000 after a series of personal and staff personnel upheavals.

In fact, it seems to take some extraordinary circumstances — political or personal — for an incumbent to lose in Utah.

"Our history has been that it's almost taken (a scandal) to defeat an incumbent," notes David Magleby, a Brigham Young University dean and political science professor. Especially for a Democrat, scandal or a bitter GOP primary creating party disunity is required to unseat an incumbent Republican, he added.

If incumbents, especially Republicans, keep their heads down, work hard and don't anger the base supporters of their party, they can serve out their lives in office.