State's snowpack is melting too fast

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts an easing of Utah's drought this spring. But at the same time, winter snowpack across the state is melting far too early.

The diminution of the snowpack results from a week of hot, dry weather. Even in high mountain snowfields, a large amount of the snow is evaporating or soaking into the ground without raising stream flows.

In a normal year, the snowpack might melt toward the end of April and swiftly run off, carrying water to streams, rivers and reservoirs. But the early reduction means this potential runoff is dwindling before it can begin.

Reservoirs that are already hard hit by years of drought may be low during another growing season.

"We had a record high on Friday, 75, and a record-equaling 73 on Sunday," Mark Eubank, KSL chief meteorologist, said about Salt Lake's weather. Numerous other high-temperature records were set elsewhere in the state.

"Usually March brings a day or two like this, but to get a week of this is very unusual."

A high-pressure system remains locked over the Beehive State, blocking any storms that might be tempted to move in. That means not only that the hot weather melts snow, but the usual March storms can't contribute to the snowpack.

The near future holds no promise of relief. Eubank predicts "continued near-record temperatures probably through Thursday. Then there's a chance of some rain on the weekend."

Still, in its yearly "spring outlook" report released last Friday, NOAA says the Utah drought will be improving.

A prediction map posted by NOAA at www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/droughtoutlook-amj2004b.jpg predicts conditions through June. It shows most of Utah classified as due for "some improvement" in the drought. For a swath extending from central Utah to the northwestern section of the state, the outlook is for "improvement."

The improvement forecast means "drought likely to improve, impacts ease," according to the map's legend. The silver lining is that NOAA says Utah and most other Western states face "below average" risk of spring flooding.

"We considered both the near-term forecast weather and the longer-term forecast weather, as well as snowpack conditions," in making the drought prediction, said Douglas LeComte, NOAA senior meteorologist at Camp Springs, Md. The water supply forecast also was consulted.