Demos' chances of regaining Senate control rise

WASHINGTON — In a new and surprising shift of fortune, Democrats have a chance to win back control of the Senate this year.

Victory is still an uphill climb for them. But if they can hold some of five Southern seats where veteran Democrats are retiring and pick up a couple more in states where Republicans are stepping down, such as Colorado, Illinois and Oklahoma, they could eke out a narrow majority and reclaim the control they lost in 2002.

Though overshadowed by the presidential campaign, the contest for control of the Senate will have major consequences for whoever wins the White House, particularly if it's President Bush. A Democratic Senate would have virtual veto power over his agenda.

Just weeks ago, prospects looked better for Republicans to hold or even increase their 51-seat majority in the 100-member Senate. That started to change as Democrats recruited strong candidates in several Southern states. More dramatically, several popular Republicans in Colorado declined to jump into the fight to keep the Senate seat that's being vacated by Republican Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, giving the Democratic candidate there a shot at victory.

"Now it's a fight for the majority," said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the authoritative Cook Political Report, an independent service. "They need an awful lot to go right for them, but the Democrats have enough seats in play for it to be a possibility." The landscape is improving for Democrats more because of the emerging lineup of candidates state by state rather than any national trend. One key factor: President Bush has been less successful than he was in 2002 at recruiting well-known Republicans, as he has focused more on his tight race for re-election.

That's most evident in Colorado, where Campbell announced this month that he will retire, putting a safe Republican seat in play. Democrats cleared the field for Attorney General Ken Salazar as their candidate.

Republican hopes to lock up the seat with a top-tier candidate fizzled as popular Gov. Bill Owens declined to run, followed by Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, U.S. Reps. Bob Beauprez, Scott McInnis and Tom Tancredo, as well as Jim Nicholson, the U.S. ambassador to the Vatican and former chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Finally, former Republican U.S. Rep. Bob Schaffer stepped forward this week to announce his candidacy.

"Unless you're a swing state, there is no effort at all by the White House," said Duffy. "They're so preoccupied with their own election, they're not getting involved unless something is directly impacting them."