'Lord' of the Oscars

Should win: Theron, although Keaton's comedic comeback was pretty swell.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominated: Alec Baldwin, "The Cooler"; Benicio Del Toro, "21 Grams"; Djimon Hounsou, "In America"; Tim Robbins, "Mystic River"; Ken Watanabe, "The Last Samurai."

Will win: Robbins, though fears over his possible acceptance speech could lead to a win by Baldwin.

Should win: Watanabe, who brought dignity and intensity to the otherwise lackluster "Samurai."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominated: Shohreh Aghdashloo, "House of Sand and Fog"; Patricia Clarkson, "Pieces of April"; Marcia Gay Harden, "Mystic River"; Holly Hunter, "Thirteen"; Renee Zellweger, "Cold Mountain."

Will win: Zellweger is the favorite in the Oscar's least-predictable race, but really, anyone could win here.

Should win: Aghdashloo, who stole the movie out from under her co-star Kingsley.

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominated: Sofia Coppola, "Lost in Translation"; Clint Eastwood, "Mystic River"; Peter Jackson, "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"; Fernando Meirelles, "City of God"; Peter Weir, "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World."

Will win: Jackson, completing the near-sweep by his "Rings" conclusion.

Should win: Meirelles, though he's probably honored just to be nominated for his unforgettable thriller.

OTHER (NEARLY) SURE BETS

Best Animated Feature: "Finding Nemo"

Best Foreign Film: "The Barbarian Invasions"

Best Documentary Feature: "The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons From the Life of Robert S. McNamara"

Best Song: Sting, "You Will Be My Ain True Love" ("Cold Mountain")

Best Musical Score: Howard Shore, "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"

Best Cinematography: Cesar Charlone, "City of God"

Best Adapted Screenplay: Brian Helgeland, "Mystic River"

Best Original Screenplay: Sofia Coppola, "Lost in Translation"

Best Visual Effects: "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"

---

E-mail: jeff@desnews.com