'Lord' of the Oscars

Based on what was nominated this year, I'd have to say that the Academy Award voters have gotten it right for a change.

Which is more than I can say for myself.

Last year, I had my lowest-ever batting average for picking the Oscar winners — a measly seven were correct out of 15 guesses. (Although, for correctly suggesting that "The Hours" star Nicole Kidman and her "stunt nose" would win Best Actress, perhaps I deserve a 50-50 split.)

Which is why I'm glad there are so many sure bets this year. (Not that I'm advocating wagering, mind you.)

Sunday's Academy Awards ceremony is expected to crown a new king — "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King," that is. The smart money says the finale of Peter Jackson's fantasy trilogy will take home the gold for most, if not all, of its 11 nominations.

You can also count on plenty of "Rings" jokes by Billy Crystal, who returns for his seventh stint as host on Sunday. (The 76th annual Academy Awards starts at 6 p.m. on KTVX-Ch. 4.)

Here are my picks in 15 of the 24 Oscar categories, the six major categories and nine others I'm fairly confident about:

BEST PICTURE

Nominated: "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King," "Lost in Translation," "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World," "Mystic River," "Seabiscuit."

Will win: "The Return of the King," to no one's surprise.

Should win: "The Return of the King," to make up for Oscar "snubbing" the other two films in the "Rings" trilogy.

BEST ACTOR

Nominated: Johnny Depp, "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl"; Ben Kingsley, "House of Sand and Fog"; Jude Law, "Cold Mountain"; Bill Murray, "Lost in Translation"; Sean Penn, "Mystic River."

Will win: Murray, who won't embarrass the Academy as might his competitor, the politically outspoken Penn.

Should win: Murray, for his funny-sad lead performance.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominated: Keisha Castle-Hughes, "Whale Rider"; Diane Keaton, "Something's Gotta Give"; Samantha Morton, "In America"; Charlize Theron, "Monster"; Naomi Watts, "21 Grams."

Will win: Theron, whose career gained credibility with her "Monster"-ous turn.

Should win: Theron, although Keaton's comedic comeback was pretty swell.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominated: Alec Baldwin, "The Cooler"; Benicio Del Toro, "21 Grams"; Djimon Hounsou, "In America"; Tim Robbins, "Mystic River"; Ken Watanabe, "The Last Samurai."

Will win: Robbins, though fears over his possible acceptance speech could lead to a win by Baldwin.

Should win: Watanabe, who brought dignity and intensity to the otherwise lackluster "Samurai."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS