What derailed Howard Dean's machine?

The day after Saddam Hussein was caught in his spider hole, Howard Dean stepped before a crush of TV cameras to offer a statesmanlike appraisal. It was "not a day to talk about politics," the former Vermont governor said that muggy December morning in Palm Beach, Fla.

He saluted the military and called it "a great day" for the Bush administration. Less than 24 hours later, however, Dean's tone shifted — and along with it the fortunes of his high-flying campaign.

As his caravan motored to a Los Angeles hotel, Dean penciled a new line into the foreign policy address he was about to give. He had labored for months over the speech, helped by a team of eminent advisers that included former Vice President Al Gore.

But that one line inserted on the spur of the moment, an assertion that Saddam's capture had not made America safer, dominated the headlines and reverberated in the Democratic presidential campaign for weeks.

The statement was the kind of off-the-cuff observation that had endeared Dean to legions of disaffected Democrats. But to many just tuning into the presidential contest, it seemed wrong and even a little reckless.

Although it was unclear at the time — and the veracity of Dean's statement can still be debated — the comment marked the beginning of his descent from front-runner to the straits he finds himself in today.

"I think it sent shock waves," said University of South Florida political science professor Susan MacManus. "It was just too out there for a lot of people . . . and Dean's believability index started slipping."

After being shut out in the first 11 nominating contests — including Saturday's caucuses in Michigan and Washington state — Dean is hoping a win on Feb. 17 in Wisconsin can salvage his candidacy. But even his top advisers have conceded this strategy is untested and unorthodox.

And in a further setback, Dean on Saturday lost the endorsement of one of the largest U.S. unions — the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. The mid-November decision by AFSCME and another large labor group, the Service Employees International Union, to back Dean was a major boost for him and at the time added to the sense that he was steamrolling toward the nomination.

With its record-shattering Internet fund-raising and overflow crowds at rallies, the Dean campaign had often seemed to defy the laws of political physics. He showed a shaky command of several issues during an interview on "Meet the Press" last June; he caused a flap last fall by saying he wanted to appeal to Southerners who embrace the Confederate flag; he drew fire for sealing some of his gubernatorial records.