A before-and-after look at intelligence views on Iraq weapons

Prewar views on Iraq's weapons programs, based on Bush administration statements and documents including unclassified information from the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate, and CIA Director George Tenet's views on their accuracy today. Tenet spoke Thursday at Georgetown University:

Chemical Weapons:

• Before: Iraq was believed to have stocked up to 500 metric tons of chemical warfare agents. It was also said to have concealed equipment and other items needed for continuing chemical weapons production.

• After: No chemical weapons have been found. Some sources say Iraq was conducting experiments to develop chemical weapons, but no physical evidence has been found. More time is needed to investigate.

Tenet on Thursday: "My provisional bottom line today: Saddam had the intent and capability to quickly convert civilian industry to chemical weapons production. However, we have not yet found the weapons we expected."

Biological Weapons:

• Before: Intelligence agencies believed Iraq had biological weapons and facilities to develop more of them. Among the weapons believed to be in Iraq was anthrax, a deadly germ which could be quickly produced and delivered by bombs, missiles, aerial sprayers or covert operatives. Mobile laboratories were believed to be used for developing biological weapons.

• After: No weapons have been found. Inspectors have found facilities that could be used for biological weapons research and development. Agencies need to learn more about the role played by Iraqi security services, which operated covert labs. There is no consensus about whether trailers located by inspectors were used for biological warfare or the production of hydrogen.

Tenet: "My provisional bottom line today: Iraq intended to develop biological weapons. Clearly, research and development work was under way that would have permitted a rapid shift to agent production if seed stocks were available. But we do not yet know if production took place. And just as clearly, we have not yet found biological weapons."

Nuclear Weapons:

• Before: There was no evidence Iraq had ever abandoned its nuclear program. Saddam was trying to get fissile material to produce a bomb. He also made repeated attempts to acquire high-specification aluminum tubes that could be used as centrifuges. Iraq was unlikely to build a nuclear weapon until the end of the decade, but it could produce one within a year if it acquired weapons-grade fissile material abroad.