Utah hopefuls must tap caucus power

Webb: The Iowa caucus results demonstrate how volatile and unpredictable these neighborhood political gatherings can be, especially in a multiple-candidate race. Utah's seven Republican gubernatorial hopefuls ought to pay attention.

Utah's caucuses, scheduled for March 23, are similar to Iowa's in that political activists gather in neighborhood locations to vote. Utah caucuses, however, are focused on state and local races, not the presidential contest. Also, Utah caucus attendees don't vote for particular candidates but instead elect delegates to state and county conventions, where lists of candidates are narrowed to one or two per office.

But for a candidate in Utah, like in Iowa, the goal is to get your supporters to attend and dominate the neighborhood caucuses so you have a better chance of ultimately winning the nomination.

This goal requires enormous organizational strength. It also requires communication prowess and a terrific sense of timing so that your caucus campaign peaks at just the right time. A bit of luck doesn't hurt, either.

National Journal columnist Charlie Cook writes that the best formula to win the Iowa caucus is to "organize, organize, organize. Then get hot at the end." John Kerry was both organized and hot at the end. Howard Dean was well organized but peaked too soon. John Edwards didn't have much organization, but he got hot and rode the momentum. Richard Gephardt had an organization "but was stone cold in terms of momentum."

In Utah, gubernatorial candidates Jon Huntsman Jr. and Fred Lampropoulos have the money to put together strong grass-roots organizations and massive media campaigns. But will they spend too much and peak too soon? Will they become overexposed and burn out Dean-like?

Will the more low-key Marty Stephens, Jim Hansen, Nolan Karras or Gary Herbert sneak in with some momentum at the end and overtake them? Campaign momentum has the same ebbs and flows as in a sports contest. A candidate can get hot and get on a roll, like Dean did, but then flame out.

A big factor in Utah, of course, is that once the delegates have been chosen at the caucuses, the candidates have a little over six weeks to work them over before the state convention. A candidate without a lot of money can still impress delegates enough to win at convention.