Also, Utah officials have long argued that Hill is among the most cost-effective of the nation's large repair-and-maintenance depots; would be expensive to close; may not allow true closure of its test range because of environmental problems from unexploded ordnance; and would devastate Utah's economy if it closes.

Hill's payroll exceeds $838 million, in 2002 figures. Base officials say Hill's total impact on the Utah economy is more than $2.5 billion yearly.

Vickie McCall, director of the Utah Defense Alliance, a group chartered by the state to help defend Hill, said recently, "If Hill closes, we would not only be in a recession, we would be in a depression, and it could take us 20 years to recover."

But Bishop warned, "All bases will have economic impacts. And all the bases left, generally, are very good. . . . So my gut instinct is that, again, it is going to be close competition among the bases."

McCall also warned that the new criteria — on which the Pentagon is accepting comments until the end of the month before finalizing them — are similar to guidelines used during the last base closure round in 1995, in which Hill barely survived.

"We do not know if it favors or disfavors Hill at this point. It is a bit vague, and we don't know how it will be applied. Also, we don't know the political application," she said. "And while we know that Hill has great value, we're not sure how it will rank against the other bases."

The Pentagon must submit by May 16, 2005, a list of bases it wants to close. The independent Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission will then review it and can add or delete bases as it sees fit.

It then sends its final list to the president, who may accept or reject it — but not amend it. Congress also has a chance to reject, but not amend, the list.

In the 1995 round of base closures, Defense Depot Ogden was closed. In the 1993 round, the North Area of Tooele Army Depot was closed. And in the 1988 round, Ft. Douglas was closed.

The Pentagon hopes to save $7 billion a year by closing unneeded or inefficient bases and putting the savings into better equipment, training and operations.

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E-mail: lee@desnews.com