Bush team has Dean in its sights

WASHINGTON — President Bush's re-election team is bracing for a general election campaign against Democrat Howard Dean. While Republican advisers welcome the matchup, they are not as cocky about the prospects as they once were.

The former Vermont governor has shown an ability to mobilize volunteers and raise cash, making him a formidable political force, Bush supporters acknowledge.

By most accounts, the 2004 contest will be close, perhaps decided by a few industrial states.

"I don't think there's anybody who wins in a landslide," said GOP strategist Charles Black.

"Dean has proven himself to be a pretty darn effective campaigner, so I don't want to take anything away from him," Black said. "I think Dean can consolidate the Democratic base, and that gets him up to 46 percent. If we do a good job, the president wins by a few points, but it's not going to be huge."

Such caution runs counter to initial euphoria among some Republicans that Dean represented an easy target because of his fierce anti-war rhetoric, his liberal positions on many issues, an eagerness to roll back all Bush tax cuts and his reputation for testiness.

So the comparisons made by many analysts of Dean's candidacy to the unsuccessful campaigns of George McGovern in 1972 and Walter Mondale in 1984 may have been premature.

The Bush campaign is spending most of its time preparing for a race against Dean, campaign advisers said, laying groundwork to start spending the estimated $200 million that is being raised for the primary season. A Democratic winner is expected to emerge by early March.

Dean's momentum has slowed. His Democratic rivals have ganged up on him for suggesting that Americans were no safer with Iraq's Saddam Hussein in captivity and for Dean's implied criticism of some former Clinton initiatives. Still, he remains the clear favorite in the Democratic field.

And those polls show Dean as a substantial underdog in a prospective race against Bush.

Many Democrats hoped a victorious Dean eventually would be able to reposition himself to the center. But his unyielding war opposition may have made that harder.

Bush campaign officials are expected to step up their groundwork and pour money into television spots and into direct mail appeals. They plan to rely heavily on e-mail and the Internet, hoping to beat Dean at his own game.