Is the drought waning?

Utah's extreme drought isn't history yet, but it may be beginning to fade.

An unsettled wet weather pattern is expected to continue piling up snow in much of the state's watersheds for the next five days.

"This is a really good sign for us," said Brian McInerney, hydrologist with the National Weather Service's Salt Lake forecast office. "We've got good dynamics going. . . . The key is if we can just get through January with normal or above precipitation."

McInerney believes the absence so far of any regular, strong high-pressure ridges, which have kept storms away in recent years, is promising.

"The drought's not over yet, but we're on the road," he said.

KSL meteorologist Len Randolph agrees.

"It's not over, but these storms help," he said. "We've still got a long ways to go."

Utah hasn't seen regular snowstorms like these since the mid-1990s, and December is poised to be the second-snowiest December in Salt Lake City records, dating back to 1928. The year 1983 was the wettest ever, and it would take another four-tenths of an inch of moisture in the next two days to tie that mark.

Statewide, as of Monday, Utah's snowpack is running at 120 percent of average.

One area behind the pace is southeastern Utah. For example, the Escalante River drainage is estimated at only 70 percent of normal.

"You get these pockets," McInerney said, "where the dynamics of the storm don't hit."

Still, he believes the winter season is young and one good storm would increase those numbers a lot.

After a dry October, he said Utah's soil isn't as bone dry as it was. The kind of spring Utah has will determine how much moisture runs into the ground as opposed to the reservoirs. The year 1993 was the last time Utah had saturated soil in the spring.

McInerney said the Timpanogos Divide is estimated to contain 3.6 inches of water right now and the Parleys Summit area 3 inches.

"This is looking very good," he said.

McInerney admits ending the drought is a three- to four-year process that involves filling Bear Lake and other large reservoirs. Filling Lake Powell to capacity might take longer than that.

What he doesn't want to see is a dry January as in 2003, with inversions and conditions that actually caused the mountains to lose snowpack.