Don't rock boat, U.S. tells Taiwan

WASHINGTON — The Bush administration issued an unusually strong warning to Taiwan on Monday not to hold a referendum that could fuel the island's independence movement. The move apparently was an effort to quell a growing political storm in Asia before it requires deeper U.S. intervention.

The warning came just a day before President Bush is to meet China's new prime minister, Wen Jiabao, at the White House.

All three parties — China, Taiwan and Washington — are engaged in a delicate dance that involves as much international diplomacy as domestic politics: Taiwan's leaders are up for re-election, the Bush administration needs Chinese help on issues like Korea and trade, and the Chinese would like Washington to take a harder line towards Taiwan.

Administration officials insisted that there was no change in the fundamental one-China policy, and, indeed, the State Department in recent weeks had said it opposed steps that could lead to independence for Taiwan.

But the warning on Monday was unusually blunt and officials went further by stating that they were abandoning three decades of deliberate ambiguity about how far either China or Taiwan could go in the maneuvering for the upper hand on the question of reunification or independence.

"What you're seeing here is the dropping of the ambiguity for both sides because we cannot sort of imply to the Taiwan side that we're sort of "agnostic towards moves toward Taiwan independence," a senior administration told reporters on Monday. "But at the same time we've got to make it clear to the Chinese that this is not a green light for you to contemplate the use of force or coercion against Taiwan," the official said.

The statements on Monday will be broadly interpreted as a warning to Taiwan that Washington not only opposes any declaration of independence, but even political discussion or referenda about the subject. That is bound to anger pro-Taiwan members of Congress and neo-conservatives who had been celebrating Bush's recent declaration that spreading democracy is the core mission of his foreign policy.

Last month, the White House dispatched the head of the Asia operations desk of the national security council, James Moriarty, to deliver a face-to-face caution to Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-bian, about his plans to hold a referendum next March calling for China to withdraw ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan.