'Conference rain effect'? Not today, forecaster says

Members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints will be meeting this weekend, but the heavens will likely not be weeping.

The moisture phenomenon popularly known as the "LDS general conference effect" is mainly a factor for April conferences. In fact, while it rains or snows more than a trace during 66 percent of April general conferences (with records going back to 1888), only 42 percent of October conferences have precipitation.

The conference moisture effect has not been immune to more than five years of drought, either. In fact, there has only been moisture in Salt Lake City once (April 2003) during the past eight general conferences.

Rain would certainly be welcome this weekend. But the forecast for both today and Sunday in Salt Lake City shows no chance of rain, according to the National Weather Service. It will be partly cloudy both days, though, with temperatures in the 70s.

It did rain Friday in Salt Lake City, but that storm system was expected to move out by today.

Mark Eubank, KSL's chief meteorologist, said averages for the past 30 years on this fall's two general conference dates make it look even more unlikely that they will feature any moisture.

On Oct. 4, the 30-year average chance of moisture is just 23 percent. For Oct. 5 it's even less, at only 14 percent. "October 5 and 6 are the driest days of the month of October," he said.

Eubank believes that the April perception of general conference weather dominates most people's memory. April conferences are wet more often than not, he said, because April is the wettest month of the year in Salt Lake City.

He also said it's a little hard to look at general conference moisture averages because often the Salt Lake International Airport weather differs from downtown. "Airport and downtown data don't mix well," he said.

Eubank said he can't recall any LDS general authorities who have mentioned any relationship between general conference and precipitation. It's probably the media and members who perpetuate the belief.

A new Web site, www.utahweather.org by the Utah Center for Climate and Weather, also has posted a 3 1/2-page analysis of general conference weather. Written by R. Clayton Brough, David R. James and William J. Alder, the article was originally written in 1983, but was updated in August 2003.

"The fact that LDS general conference is often associated with wet weather is not a new perception," the article states, explaining that newspaper headlines as early as 1957 were making a correlation.