Utah's job outlook grim

Utah will be among the harder-hit states in terms of job losses in 2009, according to a grim prediction from economic consulting firm Moody's Economy.com, which says every state and 95 percent of the nation's metropolitan areas will end 2009 with fewer jobs than at the year's beginning.

The report says Utah will lose 31,016 — or 2.5 percent — of its jobs. In only 13 states is the projection worse.

The pain exists to some degree everywhere, so people who lose jobs in one state won't simply be able to relocate to find work. That lack of mobility will make it harder to pull out of the downturn, say economists at Moody's Economy.com, Wachovia and others. Education and health services and government are the only sectors expected to add jobs.

The prediction for Utah is "in the ballpark" with local projections, says Mark Knold, chief economist in Utah's Department of Workforce Services. "We have it at about 2.3 percent (of jobs lost) across all sectors, led by construction."

So far, many of the jobs already lost in Utah have come from the housing-construction sector, he says, but that's fallen about as far as the experts believe it will go, with close to 13,000 jobs lost. Not so with non-residential construction, which is expected to be well off the 2007-2008 peak in dollar value, which reached $2.1 billion and is likely this year to be only $1.6 billion.

Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. has said he wants to see roads projects finished. That would stop some job losses, but will not change the projections, Knold says. And while folks are hoping that a new economic-stimulus plan will jump-start the economy, Knold says the effects won't be felt for at least the next few months.

Things that make a difference quickly don't last long, and those that do take time to be felt. "If you put a lot into rebuilding roads, rail lines and infrastructure things, that takes time to work into the system. But once you do them, they are incredible assets to the economy that give back for years and years and years," he says.

Even if the stimulus package — which contains some tax cuts, money to bolster key government programs like unemployment, Medicaid and Medicare and new jobs building infrastructure — passed this week, Knold says, "it will take a couple of months before it starts to have a ripple effect through the economy. We're living now on decisions made two or three months ago — and no decisions were made then."