A decade ago, the federal government was running a surplus. Technically, it was raiding the Social Security trust fund to get there, but the long-term outlook was good. It was so good that President Bill Clinton released projections that the nation would bring in $1.1 trillion more than expected through 2014.

Ironically, that's in the neighborhood of the budget deficits President-elect Barack Obama has predicted for the next several years.

We warned in 1999 that good times wouldn't last forever. People were talking about a "new economy" that would be immune to the normal cycles, but in reality there was nothing new; just the same old cycles and the same old human tendency to treat boom times as if they never will end, and as if personal restraint is a bygone notion.

But now it is time to warn that bad times won't last forever, either. Humans also tend to wallow in pity when bad news seems to pile up for days on end.

The quickest way out of a bad economy is to let Americans keep more of their own money, which they will use either to invest or to purchase products others create. The most encouraging aspect of the incoming administration is that Obama seems to understand this. His proposed $300 billion tax cut package would give $500 in relief to most Americans and $1,000 for married couples where only one partner works. That is an excellent idea.

Of course, tax cuts won't directly help the many who currently are facing layoffs. But his cuts include more than $100 billion for businesses, as well. Taken together, these cuts would provide a far stronger stimulus to the economy than any rebate or government bailout. They would help businesses begin to expand again so they can begin hiring again. Millions of people, working independently and in their own self-interests, are far better at distributing money than government ever could be.

Obama also would expand unemployment benefits and provide subsidized health care for the unemployed. Both seem reasonable under the circumstances, although we hope the health-care portion doesn't become a foot in the door for socialized medicine.

He wants all this, plus billions more for stimulus programs involving public works and other government projects.

Of course, these things aren't free, hence the projection of trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see. But as Americans should have learned from the Clinton experience, sometimes the eye can't see what really is ahead.

Obama will have to deal with Congress to get his ideas into law. He has promised he won't tolerate any pork-barrel additions to his plan, which will make for fascinating political drama. There are many battles ahead, but we're hopeful that years from now we will be warning exuberant Americans again in the midst of another boom cycle.