Exit polls yield some very interesting information

Published: Friday, Nov. 21, 2008 12:31 a.m. MST
 |  E-MAIL | PRINT | FONT + - 

While some people may deride voter exit polls, they really are one of the best ways to find out all kinds of things about an election and the citizens who participate in them.

As is usually the case, the Deseret News' pollster, Dan Jones & Associates, conducted an exit poll for KSL-TV on Nov. 4. The immediate results were used on KSL the night of the election to predict — before the votes were actually counted — who would win in different races or ballot issues.

I like to study the demographics of such exit polls, looking a bit deeper, if you will, to see trends and voting patterns underneath the candidate favoritisms.

And the results from the Nov. 4 exit poll show a great willingness on the part of LDS and politically independent voters to cast a ballot for a Democrat. (Jones' exit poll, along with his pre-election poll for the newspaper and TV station, also shows he had a good year — producing some of the most accurate polls when compared to actual vote totals.)

Who knows if 2008 is a trend year or just a reflection of deep, real displeasure of the job President George W. Bush and some national Republicans have done over the last eight years? Certainly the meltdown of the national economy and financial systems the final weeks before the vote impacted results.

Story continues below

And considering the Democratic wave that flowed in many states this year, Utah remains one of the most Republican states in the nation. Only moderate gains were made here by the minority party in Salt Lake County positions and the Utah Legislature.

Still, there were some significant wins for Utah Democrats. And the leadership elections in the Utah House and Senate also reflected a desire for change — a displeasure in some quarters in how things have been going.

Here are some of the more interesting results of Jones' exit poll on Nov. 4:

The Barack Obama and John McCain contest in Utah broke out clearly along party lines — 94 percent of Democrats voted for Obama, 90 percent of the Republicans voted for McCain. Since there are more Republicans than Democrats in Utah, of course McCain won here. Still, Obama actually won by a few hundred votes in Salt Lake County, nothing to sneeze at in a presidential race in Utah.

Obama picked up most of the politically independent votes, 48 percent to 43 percent across the state. That also is good news for Democrats, since it shows that independent voters, even in some conservative parts of Utah, were willing to consider the Democratic Party's presidential nominee.

LDS voters in Utah still went with McCain for president, even though nationally Republicans rejected former Gov. Mitt Romney, a Mormon, as their party's nominee and McCain didn't pick Romney as his vice presidential running mate. Jones' poll shows that McCain got 75 percent of the Utah Mormon vote, while only 21 percent went with Obama.

Recent comments

Having talk to others,

What this election and the polls showed was...

Honesty | Nov. 21, 2008 at 4:02 p.m.

@Micah 1:05.

Well said.

Joe Moe | Nov. 21, 2008 at 1:15 p.m.

Joe Moe,

Lemmings simply follow the crowd - even if it means over...

Micah | Nov. 21, 2008 at 1:05 p.m.

previousnext

Latest comments

Let's all hold off on the condemnation, ok? No conviction yet. My...

I was about 3 years old, sitting in the living room watching a black and...

Yes finally talk about getting a big athletic F/C on the Jazz!! Something the...

To say that the Book of Mormon is the great converter may have been true in...

EVERYONE DUCK, here comes another feeding frenzy of ........ OH OH, another...

Chaffetz considers challenging Bennett

There is no reason that Chaffetz should leave his religion at the door. We...

Palin mistreated

My biggest problem is that I, as a reasonably intelligent observer, am able...

he is HORRIBLE ON DEFENSE. HE IS CAPABLE OF BETTER AS 2 AND 3 YEARS AGO,...

The only victims here I see are his wife and kids.

BECAUSE? GOP Steel told them to at the moment. OH OH, another...

Advertisements