The special legislative task force on health-care reform is scheduled to come to an end this month, but don't look for the board or the project to go away anytime soon.

A few bills to address specific changes will be proposed to the full Legislature in January, but the real nuts-and-bolts legislation to improve access and quality and manage out-of-control costs of medical care probably won't come until 2010.

The process that was started this past March will require continued shepherding by the task force, so members are betting that one of the pieces of legislation coming before it Tuesday is calling for the committee to stay intact.

Both legislative leadership and the governor's office believe the state simply can't afford to let the current project end up like its predecessors over the years — generally discussed and very little acted upon. Some have foretold the same fate is in store for this reform effort, not because it doesn't need reforming but that it's so difficult and problematic that it will just overwhelm reformers in the end.

Task force members got off to a good start but haven't made much real progress, which has been hampered by experts whose testimony focuses on what can't be done and why.

Rep. David Clark, R-Santa Clara, a task force co-chairman who could well be elected the next speaker of the House, has been at the reform effort for a year and a half. He'd likely give up his place on the committee, "but the task force must remain active and retain as many of the current members as possible if the project is going to have any hope of succeeding,"

John T. Nielsen, Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr.'s health-care reform adviser, said he has every expectation plus the governor's endorsement of the task force continuing for at least an additional year.

As the goals are refined and new demands are placed on the committee, "it will move beyond being the centerpiece of the effort so far. Even with the cutbacks imposed on next year's budget, "they won't negate this top priority of the executive branch, and it will be reflected in his budget requests," Nielsen said.

The election outcomes, both local and national, will have an impact, Clark said. The federal government isn't likely to rush into a massive overhaul, particularly facing the broader economic emergencies and a possible stimulus package in the offing.

"Whatever the intent and whatever occurs, federal involvement is not going to make this job any easier for Utah," Clark said.

Seven or eight "next step" bills coming before the task force address some of those factors. Yet to be envisioned are the dozens of bills to come to re-orient medical care from sick care to actual health care — primarily keeping people healthy instead of primarily being a medical procedure provider.

Before that can happen, "we need legislation that broadens public understanding of basic cost and quality-of-care data," Clark said. "Cost is a big concern, but ultimately, costs are probably not going to be lowered, but if we could just slow them down to the wage inflation rate, we'll have accomplished something."

A national study by Families USA released last month shows that medical costs in Utah rose 84 percent between 2000 and 2007 while wages increased 17 percent.

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E-mail: jthalman@desnews.com