Lopsided leads in 3 House races

Utah's three U.S. House races this year may have the most lopsided victories in recent times, a new public opinion poll shows.

Reps. Rob Bishop, R-Utah, and Jim Matheson, D-Utah, and GOP candidate Jason Chaffetz all hold leads of 30-plus percentage points over their opponents, a new survey for the Deseret News/KSL-TV by Dan Jones & Associates shows.

Utahns in general are excited about elections this year, but much of that may be because of the presidential contest. At least in the state's three congressional races, the favorites are clearly well ahead.

Jones found:

• In the 1st District, Bishop is favored 60-27 percent over Democrat Morgan Bowen. Only 6 percent of registered voters in that northern Utah district are still undecided.

• The state's lone Democratic major officeholder, Rep. Jim Matheson, is ahead of Republican challenger Bill Dew, 65-26 percent. Only 5 percent of registered voters are undecided.

• And Chaffetz, who took out 10-year incumbent Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, in the GOP June primary, leads Democrat Bennion Spencer, 58-24 percent. Chaffetz is probably not as well-known as a longtime incumbent would be. Still, only 12 percent of registered voters are undecided in that race.

The races may well be closer by the time votes are counted Tuesday night, says Jones, who has polled in Utah for over 30 years. But such large leads are rarely, if ever, overcome.

Jones polled registered voters in all three districts. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 5 percent in the 1st and 3rd districts and 4.6 percent in the 2nd District.

In his statewide sample of 1,205 registered voters, Jones found that 28 percent had already voted. Assuming they remembered and correctly told Jones who they had voted for, more than one-fifth of the votes on the congressional races were already locked in when those voters were interviewed.

Utah is clearly still a Republican state — not wavering in the presidential race toward the Democrat Party like some of its neighbors, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.

And since there is no U.S. Senate race in Utah this year, and with GOP Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. holding a huge lead over Democratic challenger Bob Springmeyer, the healthy leads by Bishop and Chaffetz in their districts are understandable.

But the new survey shows that Democrat Matheson continues to dog Utah's major party. Even though Matheson's 2nd District votes Republican in major races — like for president and governor — election after election the GOP candidate in the 2nd District can't make headway against Matheson.