Utah pundits predict Obama victory

Democrat Barack Obama will win the presidential race, a panel of local political experts predicted Thursday, even though there's little doubt Utah will go for Republican John McCain.

But one of the four experts on the panel put together by the University of Utah's Center for Public Policy and Administration on "The Road to the White House Runs Through the West" cautioned that concerns about Obama's race may not be showing up in polls that have him ahead.

"The polls could be way off this year," Utah's premier pollster, Dan Jones, said. At least 5 percent of voters won't make up their minds until they step into a voting booth, he said, questioning whether "those many individuals will vote for an African-American."

Jones suggested that if Obama can win 30 percent of the vote in Utah, "that will be a movement" signaling new strength for Democrats in the Republican-dominated state. He said McCain is polling at about 62 percent in Utah.

Another member of the panel, lobbyist and former GOP political consultant Jeff Hartley, said the fact that McCain is still a contender nationally "tells me people are still hesitant to vote for Obama."

Hartley disagreed that a strong showing by Obama in Utah would be significant.

"He is charismatic and dynamic" compared to past Democratic candidates, Hartley said, joking that while Obama is "a star-quality candidate ... he's running against a guy who's almost dead." Later, Hartley said he was referring to the media's portrayal of the candidates.

Panelist Matthew Burbank, chairman of the U.'s political science department, said while Obama appears likely to emerge as the winning candidate on Nov. 4, "it doesn't have a big impact in Utah."

Burbank said with two Western candidates on the GOP ticket — McCain is a senator from Arizona, and his running mate is Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin — the region "should be a lock for Republicans. They shouldn't even have to think about these states."

While that may be true in Utah, considered the reddest of red states, at least three surrounding states could go Democratic this election year. Colorado, Burbank said, is the really big question, but both Nevada and New Mexico are also seen as battleground states.

KSL political reporter Rich Piatt, who also served on the panel, said he believed Obama would win if the election were held today. "I don't think it's a slam dunk. There's still time for something to happen," Piatt said.

About 100 people gathered at Little America to hear the panel, as well as an earlier group assembled by the Utah Chapter of the American Society for Public Administration.

---

E-mail: lisa@desnews.com