So far, insurers don't show big second-quarter mortgage losses

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The first read on insurance companies' second-quarter earnings shows they're taking hits from the same kinds of mortgage-backed investments as other financial firms — but so far, most haven't had the severe losses that banks and investment firms have seen.

The Travelers Cos., Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. and MetLife Inc. have all reported profit declines and Genworth Financial Inc. posted a quarterly loss driven by credit-related investments. This week, investors will get more clues about the damage insurers have suffered when American International Group Inc., Ambac Financial Group Inc. and Marsh & McLennan Cos. issue their reports.

AIG will be under particular scrutiny after the world's largest insurer lost $7.8 billion in the first quarter due to mortgage-backed investments.

Insurers, like other financial companies, have taken losses on money they put into investments including collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, securities backed by pools of mortgages or other assets. CDOs have plummeted in value since the credit crisis erupted a year ago.

"Will these investments cause a collapse in the insurance industry? My emphatic answer would be no," said Morningstar analyst Jim Ryan. "To the extent that the big insurance companies invested in those securities, they will either take a write-down or they won't."

AIG, after reporting its first-quarter losses due to credit default swap and investment portfolio losses in May, said it would raise $12.5 billion to shoreup a capital base that has been hurt by deterioration in the credit markets. Credit default swaps are contracts that allow bondholders to protect their investments, such as structured securities backed by mortgages, against a default.

The company may have another $2.5 billion of write-downs in the second-quarter for such swaps because of the securities they guarantee, Citi Investment Research analyst Joshua Shanker wrote in a recent client note on AIG. But analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial, on average, forecast a profit of 63 per share.

"We believe pessimism at the world's largest insurer is overdone," Shanker said. "Favorable quarterly earnings numbers at several early-reporting financial institutions, suggest credit concerns may be overblown."

If Wall Street is disappointed with AIG's results, it will be make it harder for Chief Executive Officer Robert Willumstad to reverse the company's more than 50 percent stock slide this year.

But Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. analyst Randy Binner said investors have already looked at which companies held risky investments, and factored many of those risks into insurers' stock prices.