This fall, here's how BYU wins the MWC or loses it: If Max Hall goes down and the offense has to back down on timing pass plays and rely on the run. Or if they suffer multiple injuries in the secondary and linebacking crew on defense.

They lose it if TCU or Utah is simply better. And BYU has to play at their places in 2008.

Here's how they win it: Because most all BYU's skill position offensive players were rookies with Robert Anae's offense a year ago. This includes Hall, Collie, Harvey Unga and tight end Dennis Pitta. This is the first season they're veterans with the system, and it will show with 10 starters back.

BYU wins it if for the first time since Mendenhall took the reins at the end of 2004, his defense won't rely on freshmen linemen or walk-on secondary players. The linebacking corps is faster than a year ago, and the two-deep secondary is not comprised of walk-on players if you accept safety Kellen Fowler and corner Scott Johnson as full-ride athletes, which they now are.

BYU wins it if a healthier kicker Mitch Payne and incoming freshman Justin Sorensen will increase field-goal range by at least 35 percent and kickoffs will stop being gimme first downs near midfield for opposing offenses, as witnessed the past two seasons when BYU went 16-0 in the league and won 21 of the last 23.

Prognostications.

Fun, but is there a science to it?

We shall see.

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E-mail: harmon@desnews.com