Democrats are expected to win big in Congress

By Steven Thomma and Margaret Talev
McClatchy Newspapers
Published: Sunday, May 18, 2008 12:40 a.m. MDT
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WASHINGTON — Whoever wins the presidency this November, it's all but a slam dunk they'll be working with a Democratic Congress. And it probably will be a stronger Democratic majority with more votes than it has today.

Even normally optimistic Republicans conceded last week that the landscape is stacked against them after losing their third special House of Representatives election in a row, all in what had been safe Republican districts.

"A large segment of the American public doesn't have confidence in the Republican Party," said Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., the party's chief political operative for House races.

"It should be a really good Democratic year in both chambers," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report. He's one of the three most authoritative nonpartisan voices on congressional races, along with Charles Cook of the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

They all predict that Democrats will add to their majorities in the House by six to 20 seats and in the Senate by two to five seats.

They add that the swing could be larger, but none expect the Democrats to gain enough to be able to push legislation past a Republican filibuster in the Senate or a presidential veto in either chamber.

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It's also possible that some of the Democratic gains could come with the election of moderate to conservative candidates — as happened last week in Mississippi. That would mean that a Democratic president — Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or New York Sen. Hillary Clinton — might have a hard time getting even a Democratic Congress to approve all of their proposals on such issues as health care and taxes.

"Obama can propose new programs by the dozen, but odds are the Congress won't go along with most of them," said Sabato. "There will be enough moderates in both the House and Senate to force a new president to compromise."

The prospects would be worse for Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican candidate.

"If it's McCain," Sabato said, "he would find his domestic policies dead on arrival. His only real influence with Congress would be in the foreign sphere."

Why the likely Democratic gains?

A confluence of forces is coming together that includes an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war, a widespread sense that the country's on the wrong track and rising costs for food, gasoline and health care. Though Democrats have shared power since they took over Congress in the 2006 election, they have yet to share much of the blame.

"The political environment is such that voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general," said Cole, who serves as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

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Recent comments

Good.

Anonymous | May 19, 2008 at 8:15 p.m.

For years, I have voted for the least of two evils. This time, they...

Disgruntled | May 18, 2008 at 10:18 a.m.

Let's hope so. We need tohave a democrat congress to work with...

dougie | May 18, 2008 at 9:14 a.m.