GOP storm is brewing in Utah County
Yeah, yeah, Utah County is the reddest county in the U.S. of A. Yada, yada, yada.
We know, already. The broad brush that paints this BYU-blue valley a blushing political red doesn't mean that every person here is a red-eyed, straight-ticket conservative.
A vast number of real, living, breathing moderate Republicans roam these parts and even a few — whisper with me now ... Democrats. But the Democrats are so November — nothing happens with them until the general election. A major June storm is brewing in the Republican Party, where Jason Chaffetz scared the stuffing out of six-term Congressman Chris Cannon on Saturday.
In fact, Cannon barely survived the day, holding onto his seat by a thread. His congressional career survived at the state GOP convention by a slim nine votes.
That's nine as in 911. If five people had voted Chaffetz instead of Cannon on the third ballot, Chaffetz would have earned a 60 percent supermajority and the Republican nomination. No primary would have been necessary, Cannon would have been done and the race for the 3rd Congressional District would be a November story, too.
Now this race gets very interesting, because it changes completely. Cannon lost at the convention two years ago, too, to John Jacob, though by a smaller margin, 52-48. Cannon rebounded for an easy win over Jacob in the Republican primary, 56-44.
The Utah Jazz provide a nice analogy. The Jazz are 41-5 in home games this year, including the playoffs, but they win less than half the time they play on the road. Cannon is the Jazz, and despite being a card-carrying conservative, he is playing a road game when he goes to a Republican convention. Republican primaries, on the other hand, have been a nice comfortable home game for him.
The reason is Republican convention delegates in his district are notably more conservative than Republican primary voters, who have never found a compelling reason to recall Cannon from Washington.
The axiom is this. Nobody who has forced Cannon to a primary by running to his right has gone on to win the primary.
Enter Chaffetz, former kicker for the BYU football team (name recognition, check), former campaign manager for Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. (has won statewide elections, check) and former chief of staff for Huntsman (has weathered media scrutiny, check).
Chaffetz clearly is to the right of Cannon on immigration. Chaffetz is calling for English to be the official language of the United States, for example.
But no one sees Chaffetz as a one-trick immigration pony, which is how voters largely perceived John Jacob, who also self-destructed in the final weeks of the 2006 primary.
Recent comments
The significance of the convention vote last weekend was that the...
Great Scott! | May 17, 2008 at 9:12 a.m.
Cannon has a much different campaign opponent this time, one that...
Stewart | May 15, 2008 at 8:31 p.m.
I hope folks are smart enough to finally get Cannon out of office...
Anonymous | May 15, 2008 at 6:29 p.m.
