Many facts seem to work against Lugo's left-wing instincts. His Patriotic Alliance for Change will be in the minority in Congress.

Paraguay's economy is closely linked to that of Brazil, where a moderate government is in power: Brazilians own many of the farms on which soybeans are grown in Paraguay, and Paraguay sells to Brazil $300 million a year worth of energy from the Itaipu hydroelectric plant co-owned by both countries. However, similar things were said of Rafael Correa when he won Ecuador's elections in 2007; Correa went on to dismiss Congress with popular support and join Chavez's club. It was also said of Bolivia's Morales that the resistance in parts of the country against the central government would limit his capacity to maneuver, and that Brazil's presence in his country's natural gas industry would be a moderating factor. Morales proved everyone wrong.

We don't know which way Lugo is going to go. But we do know this: Paraguayans did not vote against globalization, free markets or good relations with the United States. They voted against authoritarian rule, patronage, elitism and corruption — the very characteristics of Latin American populism of the kind that Chavez, Morales, Correa and Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega are implementing. Whatever it calls itself — the right or the left — and whether it sings the praises of the United States or denounces imperialism, Latin American populism is greatly responsible for the poverty that still exists in the region, including 41 percent of Paraguayans. Correcting that state of affairs by giving Paraguay a more revolutionary form of populism would be a much worse sin on the part of this former bishop than having angered the church hierarchy by becoming a politician.

Lugo should keep in mind that what the Colorado Party system and Chavez's populist republic have in common is much more important than what separates them.

---

Alvaro Vargas Llosa, author of "Liberty for Latin America," is the director of the Center on Global Prosperity at the Independent Institute. His e-mail address is AVLlosa@independent.org.