Former Michigan State receiver Devin Thomas is the perfect example of why the position he plays is so tough for NFL scouts to evaluate.

Sure, he was dominant in his junior season with the Spartans. He caught 79 passes for 1,260 yards and scored eight touchdowns. He also has great size and speed at 6-foot-2, 216 pounds and runs the 40-yard dash in 4.42 seconds.

He looks like he could provide an offense with instant explosion. But he also only played Division I football full-time for one year, and the defensive backs he overpowered in the Big Ten will be replaced by NFL players who are just as strong and fast as he is.

There's no way of telling if Thomas will be great. No one knows if he'll put together a breathtaking rookie season like Randy Moss, or if he'll be a big-time bust like Matt Jones or Troy Williamson.

"It has the biggest mortality rate of any position percentage-wise," said Gil Brandt, the former personnel director for the Dallas Cowboys who's now a draft analyst for nfl.com. "So buyer beware."

When Brandt made his comments at the scouting combine, there was a possibility that no receivers or tight ends would be selected in the first round of the NFL draft. That seems to have changed now, as Thomas, California's DeSean Jackson, Oklahoma's Malcolm Kelly and Texas' Limas Sweed could all go in the first round.

The draft's big four at receiver — Thomas, Jackson, Kelly and Sweed — each have their positive and negative attributes. Thomas, some people fear, was a one-season wonder at Michigan State. Jackson is the fastest of the receivers, but he's only 169 pounds. Kelly has great size, but ran an extremely slow 40 at his pro day. Sweed produced several big plays at Texas, but missed half of the 2007 season with a wrist injury.

Another receiver, Indiana's James Hardy, projects to be a first- or second-round pick. He's built like a tight end at 6-5, 217 pounds. NFL teams, however, can't help but be concerned with some off-the-field issues he dealt with in college.

"I mean, the guy at Cal is 169 pounds. Is he going to be big enough? He's certainly fast as (heck)," Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden told reporters at the NFL owners meetings last month. "The guy at Indiana (Hardy) is big. Every film you pick up there's another touchdown. Is he fast enough?"

Overall, the depth of quality receivers in this year's draft is the best it's been in several years. Teams will be able to find solid targets well into the second day of the draft. The depth at tight end isn't as great, and there probably won't be one selected in the first round.

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